On Blache

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Hail to the Redskins

As I said in another thread...

Our Defense (and definitely Blache) is NOT TO BLAME!!

The ONLY stat that matters is POINTS ALLOWED... or am I wrong??

* Our defense has not given up more than 24 points in a game all season (Pittsburgh is only other team to say that) - 12 teams are AVERAGING allowing more than 24 per game!! And one is a playoff team (Arizona)

* OUR defense averages giving up 19.0 per game - 7th in the NFL!!

* Our defense is doing this with an offense that is NOT controlling the clock or punters who are pinning teams back.

* Our defense SEEMS to be the problem because they have NO ROOM FOR ERROR... lol... if they give up 2 touchdowns in one game, we all know it's over (i.e. the Ravens game)

* Look at the games where our D gives in late in the 4th and they were games where our Offense went 3 & out for most of the 1st half (Dallas, Baltimore, Cincinnati) and the D was on the field for much of the day... holding the other team at bay...

Really, when you think about it, Blache deserves A LOT of credit.. I think... We have absolutely no pass rush (which puts pressure on our secondary), but Blache's philosophy is "the team that runs more productively will win the majority of games" ...

So his scheme is allowing us to have a top passing defense (opposing pass offenses have terrible numbers against us - 55% completions & 75.1 QB rating) while still being an above average run stopping team (ranked 10th, 3.8 ypc)... this equals not many points allowed.... WHICH IS WHAT REALLY MATTERS...

and although I HATE not getting pressure, the stats above don't lie...

Points allowed is pretty important, but for the argument you are making -- that they should shoulder no blame -- you are totally 100% wrong.

And it's because you don't know how to use statistics to help you decide what the problems are. It's because you are trying to use them to prove that you are right, when you are not willing to consider the possibility that you are wrong.

You say that our offense doesn't control the clock. That's not true. They are top ten in time of possession.

You say that they have no margin for error, because if they give up two touchdowns in a game, they lose. I'll guarantee you that any defense that allows a TD to the Bengals on 25% of it's drives will lose.

We have no pass rush because Blache doesn't care about sacks.

We have a below average pass defense because he sells out to stop the run.

Our opponents that have horrible passing numbers against us also have worse numbers against everyone else. We've played Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, and now Cincinnati. That was our entire non-divisional schedule in the time since our 4-1 start. We haven't played them very well at all on defense.

And most importantly, whenever we need a third down stop, we give up easy completions and can't get off the field.

[Hail to the Redskins]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Points allowed is pretty important, but for the argument you are making -- that they should shoulder no blame -- you are totally 100% wrong.

And it's because you don't know how to use statistics to help you decide what the problems are. It's because you are trying to use them to prove that you are right, when you are not willing to consider the possibility that you are wrong.

You say that our offense doesn't control the clock. That's not true. They are 1) top ten in time of possession.

You say that they have no margin for error, because if they give up two touchdowns in a game, they lose. 2) I'll guarantee you that any defense that allows a TD to the Bengals on 25% of it's drives will lose.

We have no pass rush because Blache doesn't care about sacks.

3) We have a below average pass defense because he sells out to stop the run.

4) Our opponents that have horrible passing numbers against us also have worse numbers against everyone else. We've played Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, and now Cincinnati. That was our entire non-divisional schedule in the time since our 4-1 start. We haven't played them very well at all on defense.

And most importantly, whenever we need a third down stop, we give up easy completions and can't get off the field.

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa...

1) Check the time of possession over the passed 6 games...

2) I'll guarantee you that the Bungles are averaging 25.6 points allowed. They scored 20 against us. I'll guarantee you that 10 of their 13 other opponents have scored 20 or more vs them this year.

3) Below average pass defense?? HUH?? Opponents completing 55% of their passes (3rd in NFL), a 75.1 QB rating against us (7th), 6.35 yards per attempt (5th), only 188 ypg against (6th)... all of this is BELOW average??

4) Talk about "not knowing how to use statistics" to make an argument....
Roethlisberger - 29.4 completion % / 15.1 QB rating vs Skins - 59.4% comp / 80.2 QBR overall
Flacco - 47% comp / 64.4 QBR vs Skins - 58.7% comp / 76.9 QBR overall
Hasselbeck - 50% comp /54.7 QBR vs Skins - 52% comp / 57.8 QBR overall
Bulger - 136 yds passing vs Skins
Anderson - 37.8% comp / 57.9 QBR vs Skins - 50.2% comp /66.5 QBR overall

and for the big ones....

Brees - season low 216yds, 69.6 QB Rating vs Skins - 93.9 QBR overall
and
Warner - season low 192 yds, 53.3% comp, 81.5 QBR vs Skins - 68.4%/97.5 QBR overall

So how does every team pass the ball WORSE against other teams??




Seriously... do not talk about someone not knowing how to read statistics... enough with the attacks, if you disagree, fine, but people don't go attacking others when you make no sense at all yourself...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Hail to the Redskins

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa...

1) Check the time of possession over the passed 6 games...

2) I'll guarantee you that the Bungles are averaging 25.6 points allowed. They scored 20 against us. I'll guarantee you that 10 of their 13 other opponents have scored 20 or more vs them this year.

3) Below average pass defense?? HUH?? Opponents completing 55% of their passes (3rd in NFL), a 75.1 QB rating against us (7th), 6.35 yards per attempt (5th), only 188 ypg against (6th)... all of this is BELOW average??

4) Talk about "not knowing how to use statistics" to make an argument....
Roethlisberger - 29.4 completion % / 15.1 QB rating vs Skins - 59.4% comp / 80.2 QBR overall
Flacco - 47% comp / 64.4 QBR vs Skins - 58.7% comp / 76.9 QBR overall
Hasselbeck - 50% comp /54.7 QBR vs Skins - 52% comp / 57.8 QBR overall
Bulger - 136 yds passing vs Skins
Anderson - 37.8% comp / 57.9 QBR vs Skins - 50.2% comp /66.5 QBR overall

and for the big ones....

Brees - season low 216yds, 69.6 QB Rating vs Skins - 93.9 QBR overall
and
Warner - season low 192 yds, 53.3% comp, 81.5 QBR vs Skins - 68.4%/97.5 QBR overall

So how does every team pass the ball WORSE against other teams??




Seriously... do not talk about someone not knowing how to read statistics... enough with the attacks, if you disagree, fine, but people don't go attacking others when you make no sense at all yourself...

Way to omit Leftwich, Fitzpatrick, Orlovsky, and Bulger because they don't support your argument. Better yet, thanks for checking to see that your argument is bunk, and then trying to throw out selective stats anyway, and hoping I wouldn't notice.

I thought we defended Warner and Brees pretty darn well three months ago. Our offense also averaged 26.5 points between those games, and at the time, was clearly helping to contribute to our team success.

Thanks though, I needed a good chuckle. Carry on.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Way to omit Leftwich, Fitzpatrick, Orlovsky, and Bulger because they don't support your argument. Better yet, thanks for checking to see that your argument is bunk, and then trying to throw out selective stats anyway, and hoping I wouldn't notice.

I thought we defended Warner and Brees pretty darn well three months ago. Our offense also averaged 26.5 points between those games, and at the time, was clearly helping to contribute to our team success.

Thanks though, I needed a good chuckle. Carry on.

Every single expert that has followed the Redskins has basically said that the defense has done it's job. That Blache and his coaches are doing a nice job considering what they have to work with. These are people that played in the NFL and know more about football than you do. Yet you seem to try and over analyze everything...from some quote Blache said to talking about schemes that you probably know nothing about. Amazing.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Every single expert that has followed the Redskins has basically said that the defense has done it's job. That Blache and his coaches are doing a nice job considering what they have to work with. These are people that played in the NFL and know more about football than you do. Yet you seem to try and over analyze everything...from some quote Blache said to talking about schemes that you probably know nothing about. Amazing.

I doubt most of the experts you cite has put as much work into figuring out the problem with the team that I have, but that's besides the point. It's sad that you have to take a low blow to discredit me, because you have no idea if I'm wrong, but because you want me to be wrong. Totally classless.

You can cover your eyes and stick your head in the ground if you want to, but his "nice job" probably was responsible for costing the team the playoffs, if you had to put it on any one thing.

Obviously, it's not just one thing. Our roster isn't as deep as it needs to be. Zorn's still feeling his way around at the expensive of offensive efficiency. The offensive line is old, and has really failed to get Portis going in the second half of the year. But we faced two teams in our division at home and definately not playing their best football, and the defense allowed 5.85, and 5.55 yards per play....PER PLAY...to Dallas and New York respectively.

With those offenses basically handicapped at the time we played them, those results are totally unacceptable. We knew going in that to have a chance in those games, we would have to have the advantage on defense. We got outplayed on defense in two must wins and that's not okay with me (three if you could Pittsburgh in the second half).

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I doubt most of the experts you cite has put as much work into figuring out the problem with the team that I have, but that's besides the point. It's sad that you have to take a low blow to discredit me, because you have no idea if I'm wrong, but because you want me to be wrong. Totally classless.

You can cover your eyes and stick your head in the ground if you want to, but his "nice job" probably was responsible for costing the team the playoffs, if you had to put it on any one thing.

Obviously, it's not just one thing. Our roster isn't as deep as it needs to be. Zorn's still feeling his way around at the expensive of offensive efficiency. The offensive line is old, and has really failed to get Portis going in the second half of the year. But we faced two teams in our division at home and definately not playing their best football, and the defense allowed 5.85, and 5.55 yards per play....PER PLAY...to Dallas and New York respectively.

With those offenses basically handicapped at the time we played them, those results are totally unacceptable. We knew going in that to have a chance in those games, we would have to have the advantage on defense. We got outplayed on defense in two must wins and that's not okay with me (three if you could Pittsburgh in the second half).

I'm not trying to offend you. Sorry if you took it that way. We'll just agree to disagree.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Every single expert that has followed the Redskins has basically said that the defense has done it's job. That Blache and his coaches are doing a nice job considering what they have to work with. These are people that played in the NFL and know more about football than you do. Yet you seem to try and over analyze everything...from some quote Blache said to talking about schemes that you probably know nothing about. Amazing.

Ouch, a little harsh considering he watches the games and breaks them down play by play for us. Gtripp knows his stuff, disagree or not there's no reason to cut him down like that.

[Hail to the Redskins]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Way to omit Leftwich, Fitzpatrick, Orlovsky, and Bulger because they don't support your argument. Better yet, thanks for checking to see that your argument is bunk, and then trying to throw out selective stats anyway, and hoping I wouldn't notice.

I thought we defended Warner and Brees pretty darn well three months ago. Our offense also averaged 26.5 points between those games, and at the time, was clearly helping to contribute to our team success.

Thanks though, I needed a good chuckle. Carry on.

Talk abut a laugher... wow.... you ARE the best analyist on this site...

1st) Bulger IS listed... 136 passing yards vs Skins... over 40 on the last heave... spectacular.. it's called READING... left to right, top to bottom...

2nd) Leftwich did well, but has not played any other significant time at ALL this season to compare...

3rd) Orlovsky' numbers were break even...60% comp/88 QBR - 58.4% comp/80.3 overall .. definitely NOT much worse against others like YOUR ignorant statement was...

YOU failed to mention Romo, who we played just FOUR games ago who had a 72.4 QBR and 2 Ints in the game. Matter of fact... he had his 2nd & 4th worst QBRs against us (out of 11 games)...

I can keep going...

How about McNabb? 196 yds, 58.6% comp, 0 TDs, 79.1 QBR vs Skins - 60.9% comp,86.7 QBR overall...

or Eli Manning?? 54.3% & 61.8% comp, 61.1 & 88.5 QBRs vs Skins - 60.3% comp, 86.4 overall...

So that leaves ONE QB this ENTIRE 14 GAME SEASON who had a remotely BETTER day than usual.. Ryan Fitzpatrick with an amazing 55% comp and one London Fletcher or Mike Green CATCH away from a QBR in the 60's...

I mean... obviously you WANTED me to call you out on being TOTALLY incorrect by carrying this on... right?

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by Hail to the Redskins

Talk abut a laugher... wow.... you ARE the best analyist on this site...

1st) Bulger IS listed... 136 passing yards vs Skins... over 40 on the last heave... spectacular.. it's called READING... left to right, top to bottom...

2nd) Leftwich did well, but has not played any other significant time at ALL this season to compare...

3rd) Orlovsky' numbers were break even...60% comp/88 QBR - 58.4% comp/80.3 overall .. definitely NOT much worse against others like YOUR ignorant statement was...

YOU failed to mention Romo, who we played just FOUR games ago who had a 72.4 QBR and 2 Ints in the game. Matter of fact... he had his 2nd & 4th worst QBRs against us (out of 11 games)...

I can keep going...

How about McNabb? 196 yds, 58.6% comp, 0 TDs, 79.1 QBR vs Skins - 60.9% comp,86.7 QBR overall...

or Eli Manning?? 54.3% & 61.8% comp, 61.1 & 88.5 QBRs vs Skins - 60.3% comp, 86.4 overall...

So that leaves ONE QB this ENTIRE 14 GAME SEASON who had a remotely BETTER day than usual.. Ryan Fitzpatrick with an amazing 55% comp and one London Fletcher or Mike Green CATCH away from a QBR in the 60's...

I mean... obviously you WANTED me to call you out on being TOTALLY incorrect by carrying this on... right?

What impresses me most about our defense is we have no pass rush to speak of. Plus how many INT's have we dropped?? If these guys could just catch the ball!!! Also Cinn had most of their yardage on the first few drives. After that Blache adjusted and shut them down. That's what I really like about him and that's a sign of good coaching. He makes adjustments and he's been doing it all year long.

As long as guys are in position to make plays then I can't blame Blache. Rarely have I seen guys out of position this year. When we get beat it's cause the other guy was better. I can accept that. I remember in 06 guys were all over the place, out of position and what not. It seemed Williams was trying to be too cute. Blache seems to keep it more simple.

[Joe Kidd]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Also Cinn had most of their yardage on the first few drives. After that Blache adjusted and shut them down. That's what I really like about him and that's a sign of good coaching. He makes adjustments and he's been doing it all year long.

What happened on that last drive when the Bengals held the ball for something like 8-9 minutes? The Skins have been burned in the 4th quarter a bunch this year, for whatever reason in crunch time they falter. I'm not saying it's all on Blache, but there's just something there that makes you wonder why they can't close teams out in the 4th.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by Joe Kidd

What happened on that last drive when the Bengals held the ball for something like 8-9 minutes? The Skins have been burned in the 4th quarter a bunch this year, for whatever reason in crunch time they falter. I'm not saying it's all on Blache, but there's just something there that makes you wonder why they can't close teams out in the 4th.

From what I've seen our guys are just getting ran over in those situations. The coaches can't go out there and tackle can they? They can't make guys get off blocks can they? Who on our front line is good enough to make a stop or a sack when we have to have it? No one.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Joe Kidd

What happened on that last drive when the Bengals held the ball for something like 8-9 minutes? The Skins have been burned in the 4th quarter a bunch this year, for whatever reason in crunch time they falter. I'm not saying it's all on Blache, but there's just something there that makes you wonder why they can't close teams out in the 4th.

I'd say that our D faltered in the first 1/4 thes week and not in the fourth.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Hail to the Redskins

Talk abut a laugher... wow.... you ARE the best analyist on this site...

1st) Bulger IS listed... 136 passing yards vs Skins... over 40 on the last heave... spectacular.. it's called READING... left to right, top to bottom...

2nd) Leftwich did well, but has not played any other significant time at ALL this season to compare...

3rd) Orlovsky' numbers were break even...60% comp/88 QBR - 58.4% comp/80.3 overall .. definitely NOT much worse against others like YOUR ignorant statement was...

YOU failed to mention Romo, who we played just FOUR games ago who had a 72.4 QBR and 2 Ints in the game. Matter of fact... he had his 2nd & 4th worst QBRs against us (out of 11 games)...

I can keep going...

How about McNabb? 196 yds, 58.6% comp, 0 TDs, 79.1 QBR vs Skins - 60.9% comp,86.7 QBR overall...

or Eli Manning?? 54.3% & 61.8% comp, 61.1 & 88.5 QBRs vs Skins - 60.3% comp, 86.4 overall...

So that leaves ONE QB this ENTIRE 14 GAME SEASON who had a remotely BETTER day than usual.. Ryan Fitzpatrick with an amazing 55% comp and one London Fletcher or Mike Green CATCH away from a QBR in the 60's...

I mean... obviously you WANTED me to call you out on being TOTALLY incorrect by carrying this on... right?

You use '...' so much that I can't really get the flow of what your point is. I see a lot of potentially useful statistics, but they're just thrown at me in a way that I can't hope to understand what your point is.

Basically, your argument lacks logical flow. It's coming off somewhat like:

"A bunch of horrible passers look especially horrible when playing the Redskins. Doesn't this prove that we're great!?!?! Also, points!"

Well, no, but perhaps you are trying to prove something more concrete. I can't tell.

You're also using assumed change in QB Rating to make a point that QB Rating is poorly designed to prove. But I see what you are saying with the completion %....sort of.

My point: we're a below average pass defense --and I could throw a books-worth of stats at you to prove this-- and I don't feel like we should be based on the individual talent we have in the secondary AND on the pass rush

[Hail to the Redskins]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You use '...' so much that I can't really get the flow of what your point is. I see a lot of potentially useful statistics, but they're just thrown at me in a way that I can't hope to understand what your point is.

Basically, your argument lacks logical flow. It's coming off somewhat like: A bunch of horrible passers look especially horrible when playing the Redskins. Doesn't this prove that we're great!?!?! Also, points! Well, no, but perhaps you are trying to prove something more concrete. I can't tell.

You're also using assumed change in QB Rating to make a point that QB Rating is poorly designed to prove. But I see what you are saying with the completion %....sort of.

My point: we're a below average pass defense --and I could throw a books-worth of stats at you to prove this-- and I don't feel like we should be based on the individual talent we have in the secondary AND on the pass rush

OK this is the last comment I'll make on this subject.

You originally called ME out on not understanding statistics. Then you said that QBs we face have worse days against everyone else in the league.

I then pointed out that we are ranked in the top 10 in pretty much every pass defense category and that you were wrong. I showed, with CLEAR statistics that only one QB in 14 games has a romotely better day that usual. You read, and obviously understand what I was pointing out because of the next ludicrous statement you make in response, then act like YOU can't understand the logic of statement made because you can't make a truly valid argument to facts & numbers I present.

You actually make a mocking statement saying we have faced "A bunch of horrible passers"??

Romo? McNabb? Manning? Roethlisberger? Hasselbeck? Brees? Warner? These are horrible passers?

Whatever. I can't argue with this kind of talk anymore.

Look, I'm not trying to bash you here, but I will defend myself when someone attacks my intelligence.

I can't really make myself much more clear. Anyone who thinks we have a "below average pass defense" should NOT be trying to belittle or trash ANYONE else's statements.

If you are this site's premeir football analyst and feel like you have to belittle facts someone else points out, because you feel threatened (I guess), don't worry, most people don't have the time to put in the hours you do... including me. (Oh, sorry for the ... now you may not be able to understand my whole post)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Hail to the Redskins

OK this is the last comment I'll make on this subject.

You originally called ME out on not understanding statistics. Then you said that QBs we face have worse days against everyone else in the league.

I then pointed out that we are ranked in the top 10 in pretty much every pass defense category and that you were wrong. I showed, with CLEAR statistics that only one QB in 14 games has a romotely better day that usual. You read, and obviously understand what I was pointing out because of the next ludicrous statement you make in response, then act like YOU can't understand the logic of statement made because you can't make a truly valid argument to facts & numbers I present.

You actually make a mocking statement saying we have faced "A bunch of horrible passers"??

Romo? McNabb? Manning? Roethlisberger? Hasselbeck? Brees? Warner? These are horrible passers?

Whatever. I can't argue with this kind of talk anymore.

Look, I'm not trying to bash you here, but I will defend myself when someone attacks my intelligence.

I can't really make myself much more clear. Anyone who thinks we have a "below average pass defense" should NOT be trying to belittle or trash ANYONE else's statements.

If you are this site's premeir football analyst and feel like you have to belittle facts someone else points out, because you feel threatened (I guess), don't worry, most people don't have the time to put in the hours you do... including me. (Oh, sorry for the ... now you may not be able to understand my whole post)

I don't think this should be about you vs. me: who knows more? Why would I stoop down to that level? It's not an argument that anyone on this board, besides you, should or would give a crap about.

I never once accused you of not knowing what you are talking about. I thought your argument was built the wrong way (kinda like the Redskins). You decided, presumably based on the games you've seen, that the Redskins defense is great, offense is terrible, and that you might be able to prove this statistically. Statistics were never designed to be used like that. The context-neutral statistics I cite in ALL of my game reviews suggest that the defense and offense are close to equally responsible for the downfall of the team. Not coincidentally, this is also what I see on film. Imagine that.

What you did bring to light is that, the Redskins have faced a bunch of passers that are having awful years. When you cite Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck, you're only helping to defend my point. When you cite Brees, and Warner, you're actually bringing solid evidence to the contrary. Which makes this a good discussion. Those guys are MVP candidates. We shut them down. Why haven't we done that all season long?! Why did Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Bulger succeed where Brees and Warner failed? Why are we totally helpless against Eli Manning and Tony Romo (and possibly McNabb, depending on the outcome of Sunday's game). Should we be?

But the problem here is that you are lumping the good passers with the bad passers with the disappointingly bad, with the surprisingly bad, and then you use a series of double standards. ("Don't you think Roethlisberger is great?! What about Hasselbeck?")

I enjoyed your game by game breakdown of how passers did against us. You also changed the metric you were using to suit your argument, because the primary metrics you used, completion percentage and QB Rating, did not fit your argument in all the cases. Which means, that by definition, your argument was weak. I didn't have to respond, because you already knew from the research that you weren't as right as you thought you were. That was MY point.

The main thing, is I can't respond to your point, until you make a point. I think you are trying to say that we have an above average pass defense. But your defense for it is weak. Since you can't come to terms with me on proper opponent adjustments for the Leftwich half, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Hasselbeck, Dan Orlovsky, Mark Bulger, or against one of the other passers we should have shut down, but didn't, I suggest we shrink the sample and talk about a case by case study.

Brees and Warner struggled against this pass defense, like you said. Romo and Manning, in those must win games, have had no trouble whatsoever, broken pinky, wet ball, whatever the conditions. Why exactly, are you contesting, that the performance of two home games in September should outweigh two more important home games in November in your argument? Why are you giving the defense a pass in those games?

Very simple. The two best performances vs. our two worst. All else equal, why should September games be weighed more heavily in your mind than November games within the division. Are injuries a factor in your mind? Or are you simply refusing to admit the defense f'ed up at any point this season.

---------------------------------

PS -- If you bother to respond to this, you first must consider the fact that you might be wrong, and I might be right here. If you can't do that, don't bother responding to this. You will be wasting your time.

You aren't necessarily wrong, that's not what I'm trying to say. But if your whole purpose of reading this is to try to prove, against strong evidence to the contrary, that you are right, it's just not worth what you are going to put into it. I mean, you obviously haven't put as much thought into it as I have.

And don't bother with any personal attacks either. You haven't been around here long enough to offend me.