Bradford/Clausen now split among Mock Drafts

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think we (I?) know a lot more about Clausen's mediocre ability to adjust to adverse conditions, compared to Bradford, who is an unknown from that one aspect.

Please explain Clausen's mediocre ability to adjust to adverse conditions? I know you're up in MI, but I watch ND quite a bit too, and I don't see what you're talking about.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Please explain Clausen's mediocre ability to adjust to adverse conditions? I know you're up in MI, but I watch ND quite a bit too, and I don't see what you're talking about.

adverse conditions = when his team is not the decisive advantage. So, you'd throw out the Washington State game, throw out the Purdue game, the Nevada game, the 200(9) Hawaii Bowl. Specifically, I'm looking at those Boston College games and Navy games when Clausen struggles to adjust to teams that take away the deep ball and make him throw underneath. His inability to sustain drives.

Not to say that can't be adapted over time, as Peyton Manning came into the NFL with the same problem.

Freely admitting that this is something he got better with over time, Clausen has a tendency to have second half struggles against teams who can adjust to whatever Weis wanted to attack them with in the first half. I think it was a big part of ND's end-of-year swoon, personally. Not as big as the defensive woes, obviously, but Clausens efficiency certainly declined in the second half of the season.

If you want my in depth thought on Clausen/Bradford/the like, I wrote this article today:

Bradford vs. Clausen, and why McCoy is still tops in this draft class « LiveBall Sports

But basically, my concerns with him are that his 62% completion percentage doesn't really off-set the negatives you have to take when you draft him. I think if he completed 67% of his passes at ND, then yeah, he'd be franchise QB material despite a high sack rate and mediocre win percentage. At 62% and 34 college starts, that's first round quality, but not anything we haven't seen in the past.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

adverse conditions = when his team is not the decisive advantage. So, you'd throw out the Washington State game, throw out the Purdue game, the Nevada game, the 200(9) Hawaii Bowl. Specifically, I'm looking at those Boston College games and Navy games when Clausen struggles to adjust to teams that take away the deep ball and make him throw underneath. His inability to sustain drives.

I didn't get to see the BC and Navy games this year, but his numbers looked pretty good. I know in the Navy game he made a couple of key turnovers (fumble/INT), but I wouldn't discount the season he had for two bad plays in the Navy game. This certainly wasn't his trend this year.

Freely admitting that this is something he got better with over time, Clausen has a tendency to have second half struggles against teams who can adjust to whatever Weis wanted to attack them with in the first half. I think it was a big part of ND's end-of-year swoon, personally. Not as big as the defensive woes, obviously, but Clausens efficiency certainly declined in the second half of the season.

His numbers don't show that. He had 2 INTs in the first half of the season and 2 in the second half. His Comp % was better in the second half of the year. His QB rating was 177.83 in the first half if you include the Nevada game when he threw 18 passes / 4TDs / 0 INTs. It was 152.80, not including that game. In the second half of the year his QB rating was 162.

But basically, my concerns with him are that his 62% completion percentage doesn't really off-set the negatives you have to take when you draft him. I think if he completed 67% of his passes at ND, then yeah, he'd be franchise QB material despite a high sack rate and mediocre win percentage. At 62% and 34 college starts, that's first round quality, but not anything we haven't seen in the past.

You're looking at overall career 62% completion %, but if you look at his Junior season he completed 68% of his passes. So based on that, you agree that he's franchise QB material, correct?

Well written article, I don't agree with the assessment of Clausen, but the article was very good.

I posted these in another thread, Matt McGuire hits the nail on the head in his evaluation of Clausen IMO.

WalterFootball.com: The NFL Matt Draft - Matt McGuire's NFL Draft Blog

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Draft Mailbag

[KI Skins Fan]

From what I've seen of Clausen, I'd agree with Matt McGuire that he is the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. I wasn't aware of how well his numbers compare to the college Jr. year numbers of some of the top NFL QB's. That is very impressive.

The one criticism of Clausen I don't understand is the complaint that he is cocky. I like athletic arrogance, especially in a QB. If the complaint were that he is so cocky that he is too full of himself to work hard and improve himself as a player, then I would understand. But it's not. It's just that he's cocky. Joe Theismann was a cocky NFL QB and he was also a good one.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

You're looking at overall career 62% completion %, but if you look at his Junior season he completed 68% of his passes. So based on that, you agree that he's franchise QB material, correct?

Right, but a players best college season tends to be his least predictive year. It's the reason that college one-year wonders hardly ever make it in the NFL. JaMarcus Russell had a 69% completion percentage as a junior at LSU. Of course, three receivers and a runner from that LSU team (not to mention a lineman) are in the NFL and contributing (well, except for Buster Davis).

Russell is an extreme example, it doesn't take much digging to see exactly where Clausen's a much more solid prospect. You look at Clausen in the most adverse conditions, that 2007 season, and you can see that though he wasn't that polished as a player, he held up his end of the bargin that year. His statistics show that. It's the Jason Campbell argument, "yeah the team sucks, but as an individual, the performance was there." And clearly, he can play through injury.

I would have liked to see Clausen come back for his senior season and work on getting rid of the ball quicker because he does have a very high college sack rate (6.7%), and for guys who play big-time competition, that number tends to remain pretty static from college to the pros. Then again, I think he's ready enough, if he lands in the right spot.

As an ND fan, for his sake, I hope he doesn't end up here. He won't be successful, even with Shanahan. He'd be the ideal pick for Denver or Arizona or Minnesota. Those are places he could go and win as early as this year. St. Louis could at least build around him. Here, and in Buffalo, there just isn't much in the offensive cupboard to work with for any quarterback.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Russell is an extreme example, it doesn't take much digging to see exactly where Clausen's a much more solid prospect. You look at Clausen in the most adverse conditions, that 2007 season, and you can see that though he wasn't that polished as a player, he held up his end of the bargin that year. His statistics show that. It's the Jason Campbell argument, "yeah the team sucks, but as an individual, the performance was there." And clearly, he can play through injury.

Russell was pretty bad. Even I knew that he was going to be horrible. Scared the crap out of me when I saw we brought him in for a pre-draft interview.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Russell was pretty bad. Even I knew that he was going to be horrible. Scared the crap out of me when I saw we brought him in for a pre-draft interview.

Yeah, I'm right there with you. I didn't ever think, until about two days before the draft, that the Raiders were actually going to draft Russell. I thought they were going with Quinn or Calvin Johnson. Kiffin didn't think Russell could play. Davis STILL thinks Russell will be just fine.

But I know that we might have gone that route if JaMarcus had been available. Thankfully he wasn't.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

As an ND fan, for his sake, I hope he doesn't end up here. He won't be successful, even with Shanahan. He'd be the ideal pick for Denver or Arizona or Minnesota. Those are places he could go and win as early as this year. St. Louis could at least build around him. Here, and in Buffalo, there just isn't much in the offensive cupboard to work with for any quarterback.

That's why JC stays around for 2010 and Clausen can sit for at least the first half of the year (or until 2011) when the OL situation is stabilized a bit.

If we get him, I certainly don't expect Clausen to be a difference maker for us in 2010. I think it's doubtful he gets past STL anyway.

[Longtimefan]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

That's why JC stays around for 2010 and Clausen can sit for at least the first half of the year (or until 2011) when the OL situation is stabilized a bit.

If we get him, I certainly don't expect Clausen to be a difference maker for us in 2010. I think it's doubtful he gets past STL anyway.

I'm just trying to figure out what we do with a QB drafted at #4 with the current state of the O-line. The price you pay (espically for a QB) drafted at #4 is far too enormous for a player whose going to sit on the bench for a year, and with the uncertainty of the CBA and the NFL future beyond 2010. You certainly can't play him with this bunch we have now, neither can you afford to sit him.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by Longtimefan

I'm just trying to figure out what we do with a QB drafted at #4 with the current state of the O-line. The price you pay (espically for a QB) drafted at #4 is far too enormous for a player whose going to sit on the bench for a year, and with the uncertainty of the CBA and the NFL future beyond 2010. You certainly can't play him with this bunch we have now, neither can you afford to sit him.

Phillip Rivers sat for a couple of years and that turned out OK. If we tender JC a mid-level offer, his contract won't break the bank, Clausen (JC2 ??? LOL) would only sit for no more than a year so we'd be fine. I'm sure once the new CBA is completed contracts done this off-season will somehow be "grandfathered", so if there's a new salary cap, a big QB contract won't kill it.

If we need to play Clausen now, he played behind a mediocre OL this year at ND anyway. I have confidence in Shanahan-Allen rebuilding the OL to a point where it's not the sieve it was in 2009. Clausen will be OK.