What is Andrew Luck Worth?

[irish]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Of course no one KNOWS that and therein lies the rub. There's risk but also reward here. He is well worth the risk if he is a rare QB. If we trade multiple picks and he sucks, then we're screwed for a long time. Personally I'd like to take the risk.

But this is a hypothetical thread about events which likely won't happen. Most likely Tannehill becomes our QB and I'm ok with that.

There is risk and reward but the problem is that the loss of the draft picks is certain (100%) while the probability of the reward equalling or exceeding that loss is very small (maybe 10%). I just dont think that kind of risk to reward ratio is one any rational thinker would accept.