What is Andrew Luck Worth?

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by irish

There is risk and reward but the problem is that the loss of the draft picks is certain (100%) while the probability of the reward equalling or exceeding that loss is very small (maybe 10%). I just dont think that kind of risk to reward ratio is one any rational thinker would accept.

Well, if you are going to set the reward at only 10%, then you are correct that it is not worth it. Many folks see the reward at much higher than a 10% likelihood, however.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Well, if you are going to set the reward at only 10%, then you are correct that it is not worth it. Many folks see the reward at much higher than a 10% likelihood, however.

I mean the odds of the reward paying off with respect to was is given up. So what I am saying is that the odds of him producing at a level equal to or greater than the 3 draft picks given up is 10%. Heck even if nothing is given up for him the chance he will be even a decent pro QB is maybe 40% tops.