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I think you are looking for a contradiction that does not exist. Just because something is speculative does not automatically make it hard. The draft is a speculative thing. Making a good 1st round pick is something that anyone that remotely follows college ball can do (its not hard).
Some things that are speculative are hard (like betting on horses).
Difficulty and speculation are not directly related.
No, speculative does not mean hard, but by definition it does mean 'theoretical rather than demonstrable' which seems to contradict your opinion that anyone who watches college football can make a good 1st round pick.
BrunellMVP? 11-15-2007, 10:05 AM good points- though i don't think you can forget the draft picks that we gave away, and I also think its important to note that we wouldn't have needed fletcher is we resigned pierce.
Monkeydad 11-15-2007, 10:09 AM Anyone that remotely follows college ball can make decent 1st round picks...
Ryan Leaf was seen by some to be better than Peyton Manning.
irish 11-15-2007, 10:09 AM No, speculative does not mean hard, but by definition it does mean 'theoretical rather than demonstrable' which seems to contradict your opinion that anyone who watches college football can make a good 1st round pick.
I dont know how Webster's defines speculative but thanks for the definition. I was using the word in the context of making an educated guess. I think people that watch a bit of college ball could make a good enough educated guess to make a good 1st round pick.
BleedBurgundy 11-15-2007, 10:18 AM I think that teams get real nervous and overthink a first round pick. That's how you get players that have had solid college careers not getting picked before some guy you've never heard of that runs a 4.3 40 and reps 225 80 times.
GTripp0012 11-15-2007, 10:24 AM Ryan Leaf was seen by some to be better than Peyton Manning.Exactly, but to whom? Those people don't have jobs looking on the managment side of the game anymore.
Because those people also thought Akili Smith>McNabb, Vick>Brees, A. Smith>Campbell, Russell>Quinn...etc.
It was pretty solid opinion in league circles that Manning was the can't miss prospect, and that Leaf was the intriguing, more gifted prospect, but given the choice of the two, the can't miss prospect should be taken every time.
The better debate is whether or not Leaf was good enough to warrant the second overall pick. The Chargers obviously thought so despite all the red flags around him and they got burned. At the time, the Chargers had a knack for making moves like that. Then they got a smarter GM, ended by on the right side of the Vick vs. Brees debate, ended up getting Tomlinson out of the deal, and were able to add Gates, Merriman, Cromartie, Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky, and Luis Castillo. 3 of which were first round picks.
GTripp0012 11-15-2007, 10:30 AM I think that teams get real nervous and overthink a first round pick. That's how you get players that have had solid college careers not getting picked before some guy you've never heard of that runs a 4.3 40 and reps 225 80 times.I agree wholeheartedly.
Landing a quality first or second round pick isn't rocket science. You just have to evaluate properly.
Landing a quality 5th or 6th round draft pick IS rocket science, and some would argue that it's flat out luck. I'm not sure which one it is, but the point is you can't f up on the early picks. The Redskins do not.
Obviously Carlos Rogers is never going to be an elite player, but he can be a solid CB for us in the future. Gregg Williams decided that Antrel Rolle and Pacman had too many red flags around that, and had CR as the number one rated CB on our board.
Arizona had Antrel Rolle No. 1 at CB on their board, but Arizona had a propensity to do that. For a long time, leading all the way up to this season.
BleedBurgundy 11-15-2007, 10:31 AM Has Rolle been getting burned? I thought at the time that he would make a really solid #2 cb one day.
#56fanatic 11-15-2007, 10:43 AM 1st round picks are usually more no brainers than say a 4th through 7th rounder. But the bust factor for any player coming out of college can be the same no matter what round they come out of. Our problem of course, comes from lack of picks, so the picks we make have to be great picks. We have gotten really good young talent from the picks we had over the last few years. I think that speaks volumes of the individuals scouting these guys. hopefully our front office will allow these picks to stay with us in the future and we wont be scrounging for FA to fill in spots of need. Gibbs and Co. need to adopt this philosophy in the next year or two coming and really stress the talent evaluation for late round picks because with the cap and the possible dead cap money we are carrying will limit what talent we can bring in during FA period.
Montgomery, Golston, and Blades? I think because a player that Gibbs drafts actually sees the playing field he's immediately headed for canton, give me a break, Cooley we had to give away picks because of Gibbs trade for Portis, and same thing with Rocky because of campbell, Cooley is tremendous, take a look at the kid Oakland took in the second rd same as Rocky, Thomas Howard, so far he's been better than Rocky. Even the players that pan out we over pay for, and out of all those players you named Cooley is the only bonified player, rocky hasn't done nearly enough for any one to hang their hats on him.
Bottom line if Gibbs has done a good job with the draft then there is no reason for our 5-11 season last year, nore should we be sitting at 5-4 this season, especially with so many older players still having to carry the load, as in Daniels, and Griffen.
Who said anything about these guys going to the HOF??
I think the point was we do have some mid to late round talent on the team. Do we need more? Yes, but the roster is certainly not totally void of mid to late round talent.
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