Who is Kirk Cousins?

I don't think those numbers are realistic.
He is the best free agent QB and someone will probably overpay for him.

Alex Smiths contract is going to be the starting point ( 4Y @ $68M ) since they have similar play styles.

The wildcard in all this is the Eagles. Bradford and KC are both UFA at the end of the year. If they like KC more, they could overpay him and weaken a division rival at the same time.

I'm going to predict Denver will make a run at him and offer him $17M a year over 5 years.

I think teams have mostly wised up about paying QB's based on one good year.

If someone wants to pay him that kinda money he might as well walk.

I don't think those numbers are realistic.
He is the best free agent QB and someone will probably overpay for him.

Alex Smiths contract is going to be the starting point ( 4Y @ $68M ) since they have similar play styles.

The wildcard in all this is the Eagles. Bradford and KC are both UFA at the end of the year. If they like KC more, they could overpay him and weaken a division rival at the same time.

I'm going to predict Denver will make a run at him and offer him $17M a year over 5 years.

I don't think so. I will be extremely surprised if he doesn't negotiate in good faith exclusively with McCloughan, and arrive at a fair market based deal. McCloughan has a way of getting guys to sign for market price because he'll go with a 3 year offer and pledge to Cousins that if he plays even better, he'll reward him even more. Cousins will buy in, McCloughan is extremely good with establishing and maintaining player relationships.

I know we have 16mil assigned to the QB spot next year, plus you figure the draft will be providing our backup (though I hear Weeden would be available). I am very confident that these next 2 weeks will go a long way toward figuring out what portion of that 16mill will get taken up keeping KC here or bringing in an older vet (not that there are any that I want). I would think a 4 yr contract that gives him life changing money (1mill base, 14 mil signing bonus, plus escalators and incentives that work out to around 15mil years 2-4) would be about what it takes to sign KC. If he falls flat in the NYG game though, he would drop a lot, because he has to get past them once before he is signed long term.

McCoy is a good backup. Especially if you think Kirk is the guy going forward for 10 years.

It's not inconceivable to think a QB who doesn't get sacked or hit a lot can't play for till he's 38 39.

McCoy is a good backup. Especially if you think Kirk is the guy going forward for 10 years.

It's not inconceivable to think a QB who doesn't get sacked or hit a lot can't play for till he's 38 39.
I absolutely agree!

Middle of the pack, and on the come. Again, no reason to rush into a decision now, but with the way it's going we'd probably be crazy to let him go.

I wouldn't rely solely on this information. Nobody thinks Ryan Fitzpatrick is a long term answer. But this definitely illustrates progress.

Total QBR - 2015 Thru Week 10

1 Carson Palmer, ARI 82
2 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 74
3 Tom Brady, NE 72
4 Andy Dalton, CIN 72
5 Aaron Rodgers, GB 71
6 Drew Brees, NO 71
7 Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ 70
8 Eli Manning, NYG 69
9 Jay Cutler, CHI 69
10 Brian Hoyer, HOU 68
11 Tyrod Taylor, BUF 66
12 Matt Ryan, ATL 65
13 Philip Rivers, SD 64
14 Derek Carr, OAK 64
15 Teddy Bridgewater, MIN 64
16 Kirk Cousins, WSH 60
17 Russell Wilson, SEA 57
18 Blake Bortles, JAX 56
19 Marcus Mariota, TEN 56
20 Jameis Winston, TB 56
21 Cam Newton, CAR 53
22 Josh McCown, CLE 53
23 Alex Smith, KC 50
24 Matthew Stafford, DET 50
25 Andrew Luck, IND 48
26 Colin Kaepernick, SF 47
27 Joe Flacco, BAL 47
28 Peyton Manning, DEN 45
29 Sam Bradford, PHI 37
30 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 35
31 Nick Foles, STL 33

And this:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2015 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb)

I have no idea what goes into QBR or DVOA or DYAR but it is better when our players aren't near the bottom of the lists.

With Kirk it is mainly now about avoiding the valleys. He doesn't need to be Aaron Rodgers or Brady out there in order for the team to win the way we seem to be building the squad.

There are always going to be the 2-3 games a season where you are facing some really tough defenses and I don't think anyone expects him to look like an all pro in those games, but he just needs to limit mistakes when possible and try to find ways to win an ugly game.

The upcoming game against Carolina is a good example. They are a very good team this season but they aren't unbeatable. In fact I think they are a bit ripe for the picking from a team exactly like ours that is slowly becoming respectable but still not on most folks' radars yet as a "threat"

with kirk it is mainly now about avoiding the valleys. He doesn't need to be aaron rodgers or brady out there in order for the team to win the way we seem to be building the squad.

There are always going to be the 2-3 games a season where you are facing some really tough defenses and i don't think anyone expects him to look like an all pro in those games, but he just needs to limit mistakes when possible and try to find ways to win an ugly game.

The upcoming game against carolina is a good example. They are a very good team this season but they aren't unbeatable. In fact i think they are a bit ripe for the picking from a team exactly like ours that is slowly becoming respectable but still not on most folks' radars yet as a "threat"

you get it!!

Excellent point about the valleys, those are the bugaboo for Kirk. Avoiding those down the stretch would be a major step in the right direction.

Again, we don't have to make a decision yet. But assuming Kirk doesn't tank down the stretch, if I'm McCloughan I might try to get him for 12M per year over three years, but almost all of it guaranteed. Give him security but still make him earn a huge pay day. I'd add a player option for year 4 that vests if he achieves certain incentives, and that salary could be 20M.

You don't want to overcommit but you want to show willingness to take care of him.

Again, decide later. Wait and see on this stretch run.

....it will be interesting to watch going forward but this offense is different then the offense the past 7 games and last year imo. different in a good way. great way. as long as we stay healthy, no excuses for the last 7 games. all the pieces are in place. prove yourself.I agree that all the pieces are in place and there are no excuses for Jay/McVay. But like Matty, I disagree that the offense is different.

I don't think the offense has changed very much. The passing concepts are the same (i.e. quick passing WCO largely dependent on run after the catch) Schematically in the run game they're very straight forward about 1st down formations, personnel and play calls (runs). Kirk was very sharp and the Saints defense put up no fight. PFF pointed out that 80% of the passing yards came after the catch. Which is a huge jump from the previously league worst YPA.

I'm curious what differences you've noticed? Maybe I've missed something...the main differences I saw are finally there are runs from shotgun spread formations on 2nd down (not many but some is better then none). Lol, the crazy part is the Saints bit on our shotgun playaction it was awesome to watch. The second schematic difference I noticed is breaking their personnel based run tendencies e.g. by passing to Alfred Morris it makes it less of dead 'run' give away when he's in the game. They also threw more RBs screens then usual (which I like).

But, going back to your earlier point I agree Jay/McVay have all the pieces in place. They're fully stocked. Its time to see what they got.